Live Election Results For Colorado Statehouse Races

Don Knox and Steph Haughton are in the State Bill newsroom this evening providing live coverage of Colorado statehouse election results. Will the Republicans keep or lose the House? Will the Democrats keep or lose the Senate? Find out first here!

04:52pm

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The last of tomorrow’s caucuses is now set.

Like the others, the Senate Republicans will be meeting at 10 a.m. Their caucus is in Senate Conference Room 354, on the third floor of the Capitol.

The Republicans will be meeting across the hall from the Democratic majority, which will meet in SCR 356. The House Democrats, soon to be in the majority, will meet in House Committee Room 0112 on the Capitol’s basement level. Finally, the House Republicans will meet across 14th Avenue from the Capitol in the Legislative Services Building, Conference Room A.

01:53pm

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The Colorado Senate Democratic majority will caucus at 10 a.m. Thursday in Senate Committee Room 356 to pick leaders following Tuesday’s election.

The Senate Republicans caucus isn’t yet known. Both the House Dems and GOP are meeting at 10 a.m. Thursday as well, either in the Capitol or in the Legislative Services Building across the street.

Colorado Democrats seem likely to retain their 20-15 majority in the Senate. In the House, Colorado Democrats regained the majority by gaining six seats, giving them a 38-27 edge.

10:15am

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If you’re a Republican looking for small consolation prizes, here’s one:

Republican Lois Landgraf blew away her minor-party opponents in HD21 … scoring 39.39 percentage points above the district’s voter-registration totals. But here’s the sad truth: Democrats didn’t run anyone against her, conceding the race from the start.

In almost all other cases (Libby Szabo was the other example), Dems scored higher wins than their voter-registration totals reflected. It was an example of the length of Barack Obama’s coattails.

Mitt Romney, by contrast, didn’t have coattails. In two Republican-leaning districts (HD33 and HD59), Republicans substantially underperformed Democrats.

The only Democrat in a hot contest not to outperform the GOP was Chuck Rodosevich in Pueblo County.

HD21 … Landgraf (R) … 39.39
HD53 … Fischer (D) … 22.34
HD50 … Young (D) … 19.6
HD24 … Schaer (D) … 15.76
HD61 … Hamner (D) … 14.2
HD52 … Ginal (D) … 11.7
HD26 … Mitsch-Bush (D) … 11.02
HD18 … Lee (D) … 8.51
HD17 … Exum (D) … 7.94
HD11 … Singer (D) … 6.48
HD29 … Kraft-Tharp (D) … 5.01
HD40 … Buckner (D) … 4.96
HD28 … Pettersen (D) … 4.35
HD03 … Kagan (D) … 3.83
HD27 … Szabo (R) … 3.61
HD35 … Peniston (D) … 2.18
HD23 … Tyler (D) … 0.08
HD47 … Rodosevich (D) … -2.69
HD33 … Pigott (R) (lost) … -5.26
HD59 … Brown (R) (lost) … -11.6

09:53am

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The state’s new election results website did pretty well for its first time out.

On the plus side, the site stayed up all night, and some of the counties — notably Jefferson and Denver — were relatively swift in reporting information to the Secretary of State’s office … and to us.

Notable laggards in the metro area were Arapahoe and Adams counties (in fairness, heavy voter turnout may have kept polls open later … time will tell.)

And some counties didn’t even appear to try to report information to the central website … we won’t name names, but Larimer, Routt and Pueblo come to mind!

The Secretary of State’s office got legislative approval to spend 150,000 in cash funds for the site.

Is it possible to fine the counties that didn’t help us get our money’s worth?

09:37am

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In hindsight, the Colorado Stateman’s Ernest Luning did a pretty good job picking hot statehouse races.

But he wasn’t perfect. Luning said the top race in the House was George/Lee in Colorado Springs (Pete Lee won), but in fact it was only the 11th closest of the 20 hot contests in the House.

The closest race in the House turned out to Rodosevich/Navarro-Ratzlaff in Pueblo’s HD-47 … and it’s so close that the current winner on the state website, the Dems’ Rodosevich, is actually running behind the GOP’s Navarro-Ratzlaff, according to the Post’s Lynn Bartels. Stay tuned.

NOTE: An original version of this post said Luning ranked Barker/Exum as the No. 1 race. He had it No. 11.

Rank … District … Candidate … Luning Rank
1 … HD47 … Rodosevich (D) … 6
2 … HD03 … Kagan (D) … 5
3 … HD33 … Primavera (D) … 12
4 …HD59 … McLachlan (D) … 4
5 … HD23 … Tyler (D) … 9
6 … HD29 … Kraft-Tharp (D) … 8
7 … HD28 … Pettersen (D) … NR
8 … HD27 … Szabo (R) … NR
9 … HD35 … Peniston (D) … NR
10 … HD26 … Mitsch-Bush (D) … NR
11 … HD18 … Lee (D) …1
12 … HD52 … Ginal (D) … NR
13 … HD40 … Buckner (D) … NR
14 … HD11 … Singer (D) … NR
15 … HD17 … Exum (D) … 11
16 … HD61 … Hamner (D) … NR
17 … HD24 … Schaer (D) … NR
18 … HD50 … Young (D) … NR
19 … HD53 … Fischer (D) … NR
20 … HD21 … Landgraf (R) … NR

09:26am

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By the light of day, it’s clear how dominant the Dem victory in Colorado’s House was.

In the 20 most hotly contested races, Dems won 18. This, despite the closeness of some of the races … in five of them, one party had at most only a 1.8 percentage point voter-registration advantage over the other.

To be sure, Dems rewrote the maps to favor them … they had the registration advantage in 16 0f the 20 districts. But how often do you set out to flip a coin “heads” 16 times out of 20 and actually do it 20?

IMPORTANT — Some of the results reported below may be soft. The Post’s Lynn Bartels is reporting that Navarro-Ratzlaff leads Rodosevich in Pueblo County. Those figures aren’t being reflected on Secretary of State’s website, however. Stay tuned.

PERCENTAGE-POINT ADVANTAGE
HD26 … 11.42 … Mitsch-Bush (D)
HD52 … 12.2 … Ginal (D)
HD33 … 5.19 … Primavera (D)
HD03 … 4.63 … Kagan (D)
HD61 … 16 … Hamner (D)
HD18 … 11.61 … Lee (D)
HD29 … 8.21 … Kraft-Tharp (D)
HD50 … 23.4 … Young (D)
HD47 … 2.31 … Rodosevich (D)
HD28 … 9.35 … Pettersen (D)
HD59 … 5.9 … McLachlan (D)
HD53 … 28.04 … Fischer (D)
HD23 … 5.98 … Tyler (D)
HD24 … 21.86 … Schaer (D)
HD11 … 13.28 … Singer (D)
HD27 … 10.62 … Szabo (R)
HD40 … 12.56 … Buckner (D)
HD17 … 15.94 … Exum (D)
HD21 … 47.89 … Landgraf (R)
HD35 … 11.38 … Peniston (D)

09:02am

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Colorado’s statehouse parties will caucus Thursday, not today, contrary to some reports.

In the House, the Democrats and Republicans will both caucus at 10 a.m. — the Democrats in the basement of the Capitol in room 0112, and the Republicans in the Legislative Services Building, Hearing Room A, across 14th Street from the Capitol.

In the Senate, tomorrow’s caucus times and locations have not yet been scheduled, a person answering the phone said.

08:51am

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Outgoing House Speaker Frank McNulty sent a congratulatory Tweet this morning to “Dem colleagues.”

08:48am

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Thanks to everyone who, after this site collapsed under the weight of heavy web traffic, continued to follow State Bill’s election results on Twitter!

07:39pm

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It’s a good night for Dems at the statehouse … so far anyway.

Dems lead in hotly contested races in both Jefferson County and El Paso County … but it’s still early.

06:48pm

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Here’s the Post’s Allison Sherry with live-streamed election coverage … check it out!

06:39pm

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It’s Scott Gessler vs. The Denver Post.

Gessler results here: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/43032/106487/en/summary.html

Post results here: http://data.denverpost.com/election/results/2012/

The odds favor Gessler, the secretary of state — he has a pipeline to the data! — so long as he can keep his site up.

06:34pm

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I’m curious what people think of new statewide results page … when results start hitting.

It’s here: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/43032/106487/en/summary.html

Let me know by emailing donknox777@gmail.com or just pinging me on Twitter!

Results expected in about a half hour!

06:27pm

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Unfortunate. Someone didn’t like me linking to a story in a gay newspaper.

06:16pm

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Just a comment here about how incredibly nasty this year’s campaign was.

It’s hard to believe that either Linda Newell or Dave Kerber in SD26 are as nasty as they each alleged. The battle between Brian Watson and Dan Kagan in HD03 seemed to set a new low.

Is it possible to get elected without trashing your opponent? Why can’t the Hickenlooper strategy work at the statehouse level?

06:08pm

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If every seat was voted exactly along party lines, Dems will control the Colorado House … by 36 to 29.

But it won’t happen like that simply because so many of the competitive seats are truly competitive … with six percentage points separating the two major parties in an astonishingly large 13 seats.

The most recent redistricting favored Democrats … they have voter-registration leads in 16 of the 20 most competitive seats … but the seats are just way more competitive this year than in 2010.

06:02pm

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Less than an hour until statehouse results are released!

06:00pm

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Interesting, Ernest Luning’s last installment on the “Top 12 Legislative Races” for the Colorado Statesman did not necessarily include the most competitive races.

Luning’s top pick — HD18’s battle between Republican Jennifer George and Democrat Pete Lee in Colorado Springs — is only the sixth-closest race as tracked by State Bill.

Luning’s No. 12 pick — HD33’s battle between GOP newcomer Dave Pigott and Diane Primavera — is three times closer than George-Lee … when voter-registration totals are considered.

“By all accounts, this isn’t going to be the kind of wave election that carries along less competitive candidates in marginally swing districts — few expect either Obama or Romney to win the state by more than a couple percentage points — but there have been so many twists and turns in the past two months that anything is possible,” Luning writes.

05:54pm

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In Colorado’s Senate, Denver’s Mike Johnston has the easiest route … his District 7 has 46.2 percent more Dems than Republicans!

05:47pm

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As she did in 2010, Democrat Beth McCann has the safest path to victory … with an astonishing 45.8 percentage point lead in voter registration in her more-than-solid-D Denver district.

05:38pm

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So as we wait for the first election results to arrive in about 82 minutes, answer this: Who has the safest path to victory in Colorado’s House?

05:31pm

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A question has been asked about the 150,000 spent on the new state results website.

Secretary of state spokesman Andrew Cole explains.

“We wanted to ‘buy’ the system, and asked for spending authority to do so by way of a bill. When that bill did not pass, we were able to find money within our current spending authority from our cash fund to ‘lease’ it for a year. We think it will be a service that Coloradans like and hope the legislature will provide spending authority to fund it going forward.”

05:28pm

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Remember how Colorado Republicans howled — fairly, many would say — about how Democrats got their maps through a nominally nonpartisan redistricting panel?

The big question tonight is whether Romney has long-enough coattails, or coattails at all, to overcome the map disadvantage.

While you chew on that, he’s an article from Governing Magazine on “Can Redistricting Ever Be Fair?”

05:24pm

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Here’s some more from Andrew Cole about the statewide elections website debuting tonight.

“It requires a human element on both ends. By law, counties cannot have their tabulation equipment connected to the internet. So they tabulate on a machine and then take a thumb drive from that machine and walk over to a terminal connected to the internet to upload results.

“On our end, we get the returns as they come in and have a chance to review them before we hit a button to publish them to the consolidated website. We’ll take a look at the first set of returns tonight to make sure everything is working, since this is the first time we’ve used it. But from there, we will hit that button to publish quite frequently.”

Again, the site is at http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/43032/106487/en/summary.html

05:21pm

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So State Bill had the chance today to talk to secretary of state spokesman Andrew Cole about the new statewide election results website debuting tonight.

Here’s what he said.

“This is the first time we have used this system, but we have tested it and we do expect it to work. All counties are wired into the system. … I am sure there will be some counties who do not post updates as often as others. That is at their discretion.

“As for traffic, we would expect very high traffic. Our vendor, SOE, runs election-night return systems for counties and states across the country. The website is hosted on their servers and they have the capacity to scale up as needed.

“The counties do indeed have various vendors they use for voting and tabulation. We worked with SOE and the counties to wire all the counties and all their various systems into this system for reporting. The contract is with our office. We paid 0,000 for this year.

Aside, from that, we’re just pleased to provide a consolidated system of returns where Coloradans can get information about elections from across the state.”

The election results page is here: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/43032/106487/en/summary.html

05:17pm

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Our timestamp troubles are fixed and we’re back live-blogging the Colorado statehouse race!

05:16pm

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We’re working on fixing out our timestamps … we missed the savings time switch!

05:10pm

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And tonight’s five closest Colorado House races are:

HD26: McConnell/Mitsch-Bush … Eagle/Routt … ex-Baumgardner district
HD52: Ginal/Morain … Eastern half of Fort Collins
HD33: Pigott/Primavera … Broomfield
HD03: Kagan/Watson … South of Hampden in Arapahoe County
HD61: Curry/Hamner/Irvine … Summit/Pitkin/Gunnison/Lake

How close are they? In each one party has a less than two percent voter registration advantage over the other. They can go either way … making the control of the House so hard to pick at 4:10 p.m. on Election Day!

05:02pm

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Report: If Colorado voters elect more Democrats than Republicans, gay and lesbian couples can plan their civil union ceremonies now.

04:59pm

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State Bill will be focusing exclusively tonight on statehouse races in Colorado!

04:57pm

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Again, everyone, here’s where statewide results can be found.

04:46pm

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Even though all 65 seats are up tonight in the Colorado House, the GOP has the advantage coming out of the blocks.

Strongly Republican seats (those where the voter-registration advantage is 10 percentage points or greater) stand at 25, vs. just 20 for the Democrats.

That leaves 20 seats that are “truly competitive.” The Republicans need only get eight to maintain control.

The trouble is, Democrats have a registration advantage in 16 of the 20 districts. However, in a number of those districts, the advantage is as thin as newsprint. It’s really thin.

The sheer number of competitive seats — that’s the way the Democrats drew the maps! — means tonight’s results are truly in doubt. But the GOP has the edge going in, and a decent Romney result could seal the deal for them to maintain control.

04:42pm

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It’s a fairer fight in the House, where Republicans could keep their advantage.

04:28pm

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A lot of Capitol watchers (and Democrats) think the Colorado Senate will stay in Democratic hands tonight. Here’s why.

There are 35 seats in the Senate, but 15 of those are already accounted for by incumbents: Eight Republicans, seven Democrats.

Republican advantage, right? Not exactly … when you factor in seats that lean strongly Democratic, the Democrats gain the upper hand at 15 seats vs. 14 seats for the GOP.

This leaves only six — count ’em, six — Senate seats that are being truly contested tonight. (State Bill defines a truly competitive seat as one in which both parties have voter registration totals within 10 percentage points of the other party).

Of those six seats, five of them lean Democratic … though two are essentially tossups: SD19 between Evie Hudak and Lang Sias, and SD22, between Capitol veterans Andy Kerr and Ken Summers.

So, advantage Democrats. But all bets are off if Romney pulls off a big Colorado win and brings long coattails …

04:27pm

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And the five closest Senate race are listed below … the biggest are separately by only 3.2 percentage points in voter registration between the major parties.

SD19: Hudak-Sias … Arvada to Northglenn
SD22: Kerr-Summers … Central Lakewood to Ken Caryl
SD26: Kerber-Newell … Littleton, Englewood, Cherry Hills Village, Greenwood Village
SD35: Crowder-Martinez … All the way from Creede to Kiowa, including Trinidad
SD14: Kefalas-Anderson … Fort Collins east to I-25

04:21pm

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And now the five closest Senate races … all with one party within 3.2 percentage points (voter registration) of the other party:

SD19: Hudak-Sias … Arvada to Northglenn
SD22: Kerr-Summers … Central Lakewood south to Ken Caryl
SD26: Kerber-Newell … Littleton, Englewood, Cherry Hills Village, Greenwood Village
SD35: Crowder-Martinez … All the way from Creede to Kiowa, including Trinidad
SD14: Kefalas-Anderson … Fort Collins east to I-25

04:20pm

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Now for those predictions … first, the Colorado Senate!

04:14pm

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Before I attempt to answer the question of who will win control, let’s talk right away about why this election is historic, journalistically speaking.

Tonight, the Colorado Secretary of State’s office is rolling out a new web-based election results page that — if it works — means the general public will have access to better election results sooner.

It’s a big if. The system necessarily relies on humans, but if the counties do their jobs posting results to this new system, the secretary’s office should theoretically be able to display those coordinated results faster.

But who knows whether the website will be able to endure all the expected traffic.

You can follow along with Steph and me here — http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/43032/106487/en/summary.html — to see if the grand experiment works!

#coleg #copolitics

03:36pm

This is Don. Everyone’s asking Steph and me who’s going to win control of the Colorado statehouse tonight.

#coleg #copolitics http://statebillnews.com/2012/11/live-election-results-for-colorado-statehouse-races/

03:34pm

#coleg #copolitics http://statebillnews.com/2012/11/live-election-results-for-colorado-statehouse-races/

Good afternoon, and welcome to State Bill’s election coverage!

10:58am

Verifying links!
http://statebillnews.com/2012/11/state-bill-election-results/

10:52am

Stand by on the time stamps!

10:52am

Time Stamp test

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