Categorized | Legislative

Despite Reapportionment, Colorado GOP Still Holds Advantage In House

STATE BILL COLORADO

Colorado Republicans loudly voiced their dissatisfaction with decennial reapportionment, but the GOP maintains a voter-registration edge going into this fall’s elections, shows a State Bill Colorado analysis.

The House today is narrowly Republican, 33-32. With reapportionment, the GOP enjoys a 27-17 lead in seats considered safe, shows State Bill’s analysis of Colorado Legislative Council data. State Bill defines a safe district as one in which one party holds at least a 10-percentage point voter-registration advantage over the other party.

Reapportionment, however, created more competitive and ultra-competitive districts, State Bill found. And it’s in competitive districts, where the party advantage is between 5 percent and 9.99 percent, where the Democrats have the advantage, six to two. Assuming that these seats fell to their respective parties, the Republicans would hold 29 seats and the Democrats 23.

That leaves the ultra-competitive seats, where one party’s advantage is less than five percent. Here again the Democrats have an advantage, but it’s only seven to six. The Democrats must win all seven seats and pick up three of the Republican-leaning ultra-competitive seats to claim the majority. If the Republicans win at least four of the six Republican-leaning seats, they would keep the majority.

The charges below list the five safest GOP and Democratic seats.

REPUBLICAN SAFE SEATS
District Differential Incumbent
Senate 09 | Percent: 40.35 | Lambert
Senate 01 | Percent: 34.21 | Brophy
Senate 04 | Percent: 30.26 | Scheffel
Senate 10 | Percent: 27.74 | Open
Senate 07 | Percent: 25.28 | King

DEMOCRATIC SAFE SEATS
District | Differential | Incumbent(s)
Senate 33 | Percent: 51.18 | Johnston
Senate 34 | Percent: 42.49 | Guzman
Senate 18 | Percent: 34.41 | Heath
Senate 31 | Percent: 26.69 | Foster, Steadman
Senate 32 | Percent: 26.31 | Aguilar

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